AGP Executive Report

Jakarta Green Push: President Prabowo backs Jakarta Governor Pramono’s plan to expand jogging tracks, parks and river cleanups, aiming to roll out the “Indonesia ASRI” movement nationwide, with vertical gardens even on large buildings. Payments Expansion: Bank Indonesia is exploring cross-border QRIS links with Saudi Arabia, India, Vietnam and Australia, potentially alongside BI-FAST, as QRIS adoption tops 15 billion transactions and 78 million users. Nuclear Energy Drive: The IAEA says Indonesia is accelerating nuclear power plans, including SMRs, and preparing for a first nuclear plant with IAEA support and a 2027 infrastructure review request. Coal & Power Reliability: Indonesia’s energy minister says coal quotas under RKAB are sufficient for PLN needs and recent outages were driven by El Niño drought cutting hydropower output, not coal shortages. AI Policy Check: An observer says Indonesia’s AI roadmap and ethics rules broadly match global trends, but implementation still needs stronger standards, audits, data quality, security, talent and research. Defense & Industry: FNSS and PT Pindad complete pre-delivery acceptance tests in Turkey for the first Kaplan APC for the Indonesian Army, with shipment and final tests next. Urban Housing Revival: State asset fund Danantara will inject Rp456b to revive 12 stalled LRT City apartment projects, targeting clearer commercial viability first. Trade & Agribusiness: Indonesia’s cosmetics IKM exports hit US$473.8m in 2025 (+13.7%), with 87% of players classified as IKM and push toward wider global markets. Regional Finance Deal: Grab will buy a controlling stake in Atome Financial for US$1.49b to expand BNPL and consumer lending across Southeast Asia.

Energy Security: Japan’s Inpex says strong buyer interest is building for its Abadi LNG project in Indonesia, boosted by Middle East tensions that make routes avoiding the Strait of Hormuz more valuable. Trade & Logistics: China-ASEAN ties deepen as CAFTA 3.0 and RCEP upgrades are set to cut barriers and expand supply-chain connectivity, with the China-ASEAN Expo pushing digital, green and connectivity cooperation. Maritime Infrastructure: A proposed Tiblawan International Port in Davao Oriental is being reviewed to strengthen BIMP-Eaga links, with potential spillovers for agriculture, fisheries, tourism and cargo. Fintech & Lending: Grab will buy a controlling 60% stake in Atome Financial for $1.49B, aiming to expand AI-driven digital lending across Southeast Asia’s underbanked base. Sustainability & Industry: Indonesia’s wildfire haze is worsening across the region as El Niño dries conditions and Anak Krakatau erupts, raising health and operational risks for businesses and transport. Mining & Agriculture Deals: Indian Solar Industries plans to acquire South Africa’s Omnia for $1.4B, expanding chemicals and agricultural inputs reach into southern Africa and beyond. Policy & Compliance: Malaysia detained 173 foreigners in a Sepang construction enforcement operation, highlighting tighter immigration compliance around project staffing. Regional Finance: The global sukuk market crossed $1T in outstanding volume in 2025, signaling continued growth in Islamic finance issuance and liquidity.

BRICS Summit Wrap: BRICS leaders closed the New Delhi summit with the New Delhi Declaration, stressing climate resilience, energy security and forest/water/land sustainability, while calling for smoother trade and supply chains amid West Asia tensions. Red Sea Shipping Risk: A renewed Houthi push around Greater/Lesser Hanish and Perim signals a more persistent threat to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint, raising stakes for global container and energy flows. Indonesia Wildfire Crisis: Fires have reached the outskirts of Nusantara, with satellite hotspots up versus 2019 and health impacts worsening as El Niño intensifies blazes. Maritime Safety: The Virgo Transport 8 ferry capsize in the Java Sea left at least six dead and 129 missing; survivors report no alarm and a rapid flip within minutes. Fisheries Push: Indonesia targets 5,000 Red and White Fishermen’s Villages by end-2029 to strengthen storage, processing and marketing. Fintech Lending Deal: Grab agreed to buy 60% of Atome Financial for US$1.49B (full takeover later) to expand consumer lending across SEA. Food & Tourism: Wonderful Indonesia Gastronomy 2026 spotlights local ingredients and dishes across Solo and Yogyakarta. Commodities Watch: Palm oil futures rose for a second straight session on firmer crude and expectations of Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel support.

Maritime Safety: Indonesia’s Virgo Transport 8 ferry disaster is still unfolding, with 6 confirmed dead and 129 missing after the vessel capsized in the Java Sea; Basarnas and partners have deployed sea and air assets across six search sectors. AI Infrastructure: Zankore is building an initial 100 MW NVIDIA AI infrastructure to expand Indonesia’s AI cloud capacity for training and inference across Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Energy & Trade Risk: Oil prices jumped above US$100 as Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after an attack, raising fears of tighter Middle East supply and higher fuel costs. Digital Access Policy: A report warns the U.S. reciprocal trade agreements could restrict developing countries’ choice of ICT suppliers, potentially affecting internet and telecom infrastructure access. Wildlife Under El Niño: Conservationists in Borneo are racing to protect orangutans from El Niño-linked fires, with multiple rescues reported so far. Bilateral Trade: Indonesia and Bulgaria are pushing to strengthen trade and investment ties, with Bulgaria positioned as a gateway into the EU market.

US Trade Pressure on Solar: The US Commerce Department has finalized steep anti-dumping and countervailing duties on crystalline silicon solar cells and panels from India, Indonesia and Laos, with Indonesia’s anti-dumping rate set at 94.36% and countervailing duties ranging up to 173.7%, raising the odds of factory closures or repurposing. Energy Security at Home: Indonesia’s ESDM Minister Bahlil Lahadalia says fuel reserves remain secure at about 20 days despite weekend queue reports, blaming localized demand shifts after non-subsidized fuel price adjustments. Biofuel Policy Push: Pertamina Patra Niaga is seeking an excise exemption for fuel-grade ethanol imports to keep ethanol-blended gasoline affordable as Indonesia prepares a blending mandate. Maritime Safety Shock: Basarnas reports the Virgo Transport 8 ferry disaster in the Java Sea has left six dead and about 129–140 missing, renewing scrutiny of Southeast Asia’s ferry safety. Construction & Mining Showcase: China’s TZCO highlighted localized, green and “smart” construction equipment at Construction Indonesia & Mining Indonesia in Jakarta, aiming to expand across Indonesia and the region. Co-op Rollout Acceleration: Indonesia’s Cooperatives Ministry unveiled a three-step plan to speed up KDMP village cooperatives’ operational phase via dissemination, verification and hiring managers. ASEAN Connectivity Talk: The ASEAN Think Tanks Summit in Jakarta urged stronger regional cooperation on energy, food and technology security as power competition and climate risks intensify.

Maritime Safety Under Fire: Indonesia’s Java Sea ferry disaster is still unfolding after the Virgo Transport 8 capsized in bad weather, with at least 6 dead and about 129 missing as rescuers pull survivors and search expands. BRICS Tech & Trade Push: At the New Delhi BRICS summit, leaders—including Indonesia’s Prabowo—back “Greater BRICS” cooperation, with Xi unveiling an open-source AI plan and proposals for service trade and special economic zones. Aviation & Services Expansion: BBN Airlines Indonesia joins IATA as it scales wet-lease and charter capacity, while Corgan expands its Asia-Pacific aviation design practice. Healthcare Partnerships: Indonesia Medica in Pakistan produced three MoUs worth a projected USD 625 million in trade transactions. Energy & Industry Signals: Shanghai Electric won its first overseas heavy-duty gas turbine order for a 500 MW Malaysian project, highlighting momentum in high-end power equipment. Retail Hours Debate: Pakistan’s chainstore lobby urges a rethink of retail operating-hour curbs, citing lost sales, jobs, and tax revenue. El Niño Watch: Westpac warns El Niño could hit pasture-based agriculture and lift imported food prices, with knock-on effects for broader growth.

Maritime Safety Crisis: Indonesia’s KM Virgo Transport 8 ferry (243 onboard) lost contact in the Java Sea after reporting “tilting” in bad weather; Basarnas says 1 person died and 103 were evacuated, with rescuers battling waves up to 2.5m and searching for the remaining missing. BRICS Diplomacy & Trade: At the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi, Indonesia’s Prabowo urged members to turn vulnerabilities into resilience and self-reliance, while China’s Xi pushed “Greater BRICS” practical cooperation—stability for industrial and supply chains, plus a proposed BRICS AI Open Source Zone and service-trade forum. Energy & Climate Stakes: BRICS leaders backed continued fossil-fuel roles for energy security while calling for just transitions, and Indonesia’s Prabowo highlighted critical minerals and energy resources as inputs for a “green century.” Indonesia-Industry Link: Indonesia and China discussed expanding industry-academia-research cooperation, with a focus on shifting development toward technology and skilled labor.

BRICS Summit in New Delhi: Leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration 2026, pushing maximum restraint in West Asia, linking security with trade and energy, and calling for peaceful conflict resolution while warning about growing nuclear risks; notably, the text skips any direct mention of the Ukraine war. Indonesia at BRICS: President Prabowo urged strong domestic resilience and self-reliance, stressing food and energy security as the base for sovereignty. Energy & climate stance: BRICS backed just, orderly energy transitions while saying fossil fuels still matter for emerging economies and opposing the EU carbon border tax. Agriculture cooperation: BRICS agreed to set up AGRIN for agro-inputs, genetic resources and farm information, and to keep work on a grain trading platform. Trade pressure on solar: The US finalized steep anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells and panels from India, Indonesia and Laos, with injury findings due next month. Indonesia fisheries: Indonesia reported $3bn in fishery exports in H1 2026, supported by quality certifications and wider market access.

BRICS Summit in New Delhi: Leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration by consensus as PM Modi pushed for a bigger Global South role in global decision-making, with the agenda also covering financial cooperation, IMF reform, food and energy security, payment systems, and global governance amid the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars. Indonesia at BRICS: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto attended the opening, underscoring Indonesia’s push for a more balanced economic order and cooperation on food, energy, development financing, and trade. Indonesia–BRICS trade push: Kadin proposed three steps to boost intra-BRICS trade and services: easier cross-border mobility for firms and professionals, interoperable payment systems, and more investment in human resources and trade-support infrastructure. Indonesia mercury-free drive: Indonesia is intensifying efforts to eliminate mercury by 2030 and manage PCBs by 2028, including recalling mercury medical devices and tightening hazardous waste handling. Energy & industry tie-ins: India and the UAE discussed expanding cooperation across defence, AI, space, nuclear energy, critical minerals, energy, food security and connectivity, including an $11.5bn aluminium investment in Odisha. Digital payments momentum: OJK said mass bank account opening can strengthen financial literacy for young people and social assistance recipients, while still requiring proper KYC. Cybersecurity watch: A China-linked exploit kit called BlueMoon has been rapidly adopted, chaining multiple Chrome and Windows zero-days, raising the risk of faster attacks across targets.

BRICS Summit Watch: India’s 18th BRICS Summit opens in New Delhi with leaders including Iran’s Pezeshkian, Russia’s Putin and UN chief Guterres arriving ahead of talks on trade, energy security, digital transformation and cross-border payments. Payments & Trade Rails: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal urged BRICS members to link payment systems, expand local-currency trade and push UPI-style interoperability to cut transaction friction. Indonesia Finance Angle: India’s ambassador said Indonesia could tap New Development Bank financing for renewable energy and resilient infrastructure, with climate-focused lending and local-currency targets. Energy Shock & Shipping Risk: Oil is set to finish the week above $100 as Houthi moves near Mokha raise Red Sea disruption fears, while Hormuz tensions keep tanker risk elevated. Fuel Subsidy Decision: Indonesia will keep subsidized Pertalite and Solar prices unchanged despite crude hovering above $100, prioritizing purchasing power and managing budget pressure. El Niño Risk Controls: Indonesia’s ESDM rolled out safeguards for energy facilities, including water-bombing response near the Tangguh LNG plant as peat fires threatened storage areas. Cocoa Downstream Push: Indonesia launched a program to rejuvenate smallholder cocoa and expand cultivation to lift yields and accelerate downstream processing. Creative Economy Export Drive: Indonesia seeks a US partnership to grow exports of fashion, crafts and culinary products, including an MoU with the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce. Forestry Governance: The ministry outlined special forest management (KHDPK) to balance ecology with rehabilitation and community benefits.

BRICS Summit Watch: India hosts the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit on Sept. 12–13, with Putin, Xi, Iran’s Pezeshkian and Indonesia’s Prabowo among expected attendees, as New Delhi pushes Global South priorities like food and energy security, resilient supply chains and inclusive growth. Maritime & Trade: Indonesia urged stronger support for small-scale fishers at FAO COFI in Rome, highlighting that they make up about 90% of Indonesia’s fishing population and need actionable programs. Industrial Transformation: Indonesia Energy & Engineering (IEE) Series 2026 opened in Jakarta, bringing together construction, mining, oil & gas, water and disaster resilience, plus foundry and metallurgy, with 1,694 companies from 34 countries. Climate & Health: NASA and Copernicus-linked reporting says Indonesia’s peat-driven wildfires are producing unusually high emissions, while ash from Anak Krakatau has triggered tens of thousands of acute respiratory infection cases in affected areas. Digital Finance & Policy: Coinfest Asia 2026 in Bali spotlighted Indonesia’s digital asset ambitions as OJK develops stablecoin and tokenization rules to expand capital access for SMEs. Cyber & Compliance: Reports flag malicious browser extensions targeting crypto users, and separate coverage notes how export-compliance failures can cascade into major violations.

Wildfire Pressure on Nusantara: Indonesia’s fires are creeping toward the new capital, with hotspots surging and officials deploying water-dropping drones and even the Giuseppe Garibaldi carrier to protect the Nusantara site. Digital Trust & Scams: A regional GSMA report says nearly half of scam cases across Indonesia and neighbors remain unresolved, with messaging apps the main channel and AI increasingly used in scams. Industry-Research Link: Indonesia’s deputy minister says Indonesia-China industry-academia-research cooperation is “vast,” urging polytechnics to partner with Chinese firms to shift growth toward tech and skilled labor. BRICS Payments Push: Ahead of the New Delhi BRICS summit, India is pushing cross-border payments via local-currency settlement and CBDC links, while Indonesia’s Prabowo is expected to attend. Trade Rules at WTO: WTO fish-subsidy talks face a fresh setback as the U.S., India, and Indonesia oppose parts of the latest draft, threatening progress toward ending harmful subsidies. Energy Costs Watch: Oil prices pushed above $100 on Middle East escalation, raising inflation fears and adding pressure to regional markets. ASEAN Digital Connectivity: ASEAN leaders stress faster connectivity plus stronger public trust so rural areas aren’t left behind, with Indonesia highlighting open-access infrastructure. Fintech Expansion: PhonePe and Visa roll out cardless payment tools, including cross-border scan-to-pay options reaching Indonesia. Climate Records: Copernicus reports August 2026 as the joint warmest month on record, with El Niño-linked heat boosting wildfire risk in Indonesia.

Jobs & Skills: Indonesia’s 2027 budget targets 2.57–3.49 million new jobs and lifts the formal employment indicator to 40.81%, but employers warn the real test is creating decent, sustained work as the workforce still skews informal. Payments Boom: Indonesia’s payments infrastructure market is forecast to hit $127.32b in 2026, driven by QRIS and e-money embedded in super-app flows, with growth also expected in unbanked regions. AI Infrastructure Deal: Zankore secured up to $3.1b to build Nvidia-powered GPU and cloud infrastructure in Indonesia, starting at 100MW and aiming toward 1GW. Cyber & Fraud Risk: Yogyakarta’s Sultan was targeted by a deepfake financial scam, highlighting how AI-manipulated media is being used to trick the public. BRICS & Trade Pressure: India’s BRICS trade deficit has more than tripled to $226.1b as imports surge faster than exports, while exporters push for better market access and local-currency payment mechanisms. Volcano Disruption Watch: Anak Krakatau activity continues to disrupt flights and operations, keeping logistics and travel planning under pressure. Industrial Collaboration: Rajoo Engineers partnered with Rieckermann to expand plastics extrusion machinery support across Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

BRICS Summit Watch: Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto is among leaders expected for the expanded BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi on Sept 12-13, with agenda items likely to include defence, nuclear energy, trade and reform of global institutions. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Oil prices pushed toward/above US$100 as US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks reignited supply worries, raising inflation concerns across the region. ASEAN Anti-Scam Push: Axiata’s Thomas Hundt urged ASEAN to set up a regional anti-scam intelligence exchange linking banks, telcos, regulators and enforcement to share signals faster. Indonesia Labor & Trade: Indonesia’s Manpower Ministry said the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) is key for workforce planning and policy design, while Trade Minister Budi Santoso said local MSME products now fill over 60% of modern retail shelves. Logistics Link: CULines launched a direct weekly China–Indonesia container service (CN1) cutting transshipment time and logistics costs for exporters and importers. Mining Safety Tech: MIND ID said it is using AI to improve safety and optimize mineral processing, including fatigue detection in coal operations. Solar Manufacturing Plan: Metalogika and Midsummer plan thin-film flexible solar panel production in Indonesia, starting at 20 MW/year with expansion potential. Disaster Response: The Indonesian Navy plans to deploy its new carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi as a floating helicopter base to support water-bombing for forest and land fires. Public Health Alert: Indonesia’s FDA warned against falsified “Dr Alfred Capsules” adulterated with sildenafil, urging consumers to avoid social-media sales.

Volcanic Disruption Watch: Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau activity has eased after a long eruption episode, but authorities keep monitoring as ash still affects aviation and travel plans. Aviation & Tourism: Jakarta airport reopened gradually after Krakatau ash disruption, while Indonesia’s tourism ministry says the sector is staying resilient despite temporary airport closures and flight disruptions. Energy & Grid Tech: Bidgely will showcase AI-driven smart meter analytics at Enlit Asia 2026 in Jakarta, aiming to help utilities cut bill shock, curb non-technical losses, and improve grid planning. Aviation Industry Growth: BBN Airlines Indonesia joined IATA as it expands wet-lease and charter operations, with plans to add an Airbus A320. Trade & Compliance: A U.S. case highlights how plywood shipments can be smuggled via stolen identities and transshipped to dodge anti-dumping duties—an enforcement reminder for exporters and logistics firms. Global Industrial Push: China’s carmakers are ramping up overseas production, including plans/assembly in Indonesia, as exports surge and competition intensifies. Sustainability & Nature: Conservation coverage spotlights Singkil peat swamp in Sumatra being cleared and drained for plantations, raising fire risk during the season.

Energy & Grid Modernization: Bidgely will showcase AI-driven smart meter analytics at Enlit Asia 2026 in Jakarta (Sept 22–24), aiming to help utilities across ASEAN cut bill shock, curb non-technical losses, and improve grid planning. Food Security & Logistics: Indonesia has earmarked Rp17 trillion for Q4 rice assistance for 33.2 million low-income families, with Bulog shifting to single 30kg quarterly packages to streamline distribution. Renewables Push in Power Generation: West Nusa Tenggara plans to convert six small coal plants to solar, with PLN identifying 1.73GW of solar and wind potential, while technical assessments are underway. Digital Payments for Retail: Adyen partners with Limitless Technology Group to consolidate payment gateways across brands and markets including Indonesia, speeding store rollouts and simplifying reconciliation. Aviation Disruption Watch: Penang’s airport says haze hasn’t disrupted flights, and notes no major stranding of Indonesian passengers after Anak Krakatau ash cancellations. Education & Skills: Nickel Industries Foundation launches its first NIC Scholarships for five Sulawesi students at UPN “Veteran” Yogyakarta, fully funding study and development. Maritime & Trade: Batangas Container Terminal adds a new direct intra-Asia service via TCLC’s Mitra Bhum, strengthening onward links to Jakarta.